What About That 1%?

fivethirtyeight’s final election prediction is that Obama goes on to predict an Obama victory of 349 electoral voted to McCain’s 189. McCain also has, I kid you not, a 1% chance of winning this thing.

I’ll be brief here: it’s still possible, very possible in fact, for McCain to win. Let’s remember that fivethirtyeight uses every poll conceivable in order to predict the potential outcomes of the election. I know that this is a scary thought, but consider the possibility that the polls are wrong. If one protests that fact, one only needs to look at the exit polling during the 2004 election – there has been quite a stir over their inaccuracies on the internet and elsewhere. If those polls are wrong, what prevents these polls from being wrong as well (though, statistically speaking, it’s quite hard for these polls to be unanimously incorrect, but I’ll counter that below)?

What about the silent GOP voting machine that has lay dormant, not responding to polls, and such? Where have they been? Or has it been fairly represented; after all, there’s still a chance that Obama could actually lose the popular vote.

But does anyone care about baseless speculation, like the above? No! After all, speculating is what got us into this mess to begin with.

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